The AR killer app: still waiting for it
If you’re building an AR app, probabilities to become an instant hit are low. The good news is, the current craze about Metaverse and Web 3.0 will fund your dreams and remove the last barriers
We could argue that Augmented Reality has been mainly underdelivering on its potential — following VR, AI, blockchain or whatever buzzword was around. Even the now overly used example of PokemonGo wasn’t really centered around AR, but rather on a perfect combination of Niantic’s proven game mechanisms, a strong IP and a good old 2D map. However, there are some examples, maybe less known, indicating that some uses-cases are here to stay: remote collaboration (many remote assistance companies), product visualisation (Ikea places and now pretty much every ecommerce platform) and virtual try-on (with cosmetics and fashion leading the pack). Yet who uses AR on a daily basis? What’s blocking users to do so?
Issues preventing AR from achieving its promise
The tech
On the hardware side, the constant false rumors are Apple releasing soon its smart glasses shouldn’t hide the quality of hardware already available, namely mobile phones. Most of Apple’s iPhones are ARkit compatible and around 1 billion Android phones are estimated to be running with ARcore (for the uninitiated, ARkit and ARcore are AR software libraries provided by Apple/Google). The total amount of compatible phones is already remarkable, but also completely scattered in thousands of models, making it hard for developers to anticipate particular issues. AR also consumes the battery quickly, hence restricting extended usages. Currently available smart glasses (such as Hololens, Nreal, Madgaze, Vuzix or light versions like Snapchat Spectacles or Rayban Stories) are still experimental, either too bulky, too expensive, with usually a small field of view and low contrast for the first ones or simply lacking key components for the 2 latter ones.
On the software side, features offered by ARkit/ARcore lack core components that could make AR more realistic, more interesting and ultimately more enjoyable: persistency of virtual content in space (like you would save a game and continue later), possibility to reposition phones in space with high accuracy (not 5–10m with GPS, 1–2m with bluetooth, but 10–20 cm with visual positioning) and capability to join, at any time, an ongoing multi-user experience.
The user value proposition
For the ~2bn users owning an AR-supported device, the purpose of using AR is the next natural question. What’s in it for them? As a mobile based technology, AR applies to utilities/information or entertainment. Within the first category, AR is already widely used by professionals understanding its obvious value proposition: making seen what’s invisible. This is the realm of overlaying information, measures, explanations, guidance, collaboration, controls, etc. In the second category (entertainment), AR hasn’t demonstrated, in our humble opinion, its value. Few games or educational tools are starting to make better usage of it, but compared to traditional 2D apps, the road is still long. Entertainment AR appears to be locked in the chicken and egg dilemma, companies being reluctant to invest in tech and content to attract more users. Hence the next challenge: content (and who pays for).
The content
Another big challenge with AR is content creation. How many users know how to create a 3D model — apart from brush apps allowing anyone to scribble in 3D. Not even to mention animating models… Content creation is slowly becoming more accessible with 3D scanning apps, but they usually require Lidar devices, i.e. >UD$1000 phones like iPhone 12 or 13 PRO. Nothing guarantees that those expensive devices will become more affordable any time soon, especially with the global shortage of semiconductor chip. So to reach the mass, creating spatial or 3D content has to become as easy as 2D content creation is today and available on device currently in use. Photos, videos and text for end-users (think Instagram, Youtube or any blog/social media), PPTs or Wix for professionals in corporations and SMEs alike, almost anyone can master those quickly. AR will only become ubiquitous when UGC comes to play. UGC could be considered as one of the central elements of web 2.0. We can assume that Web3.0 will still require massive participation from creators of any sort.
The money
Having 3D designers in our team, we went on asking them about their peers and how are they are currently making money. Unsurprisingly, most current AR creators are working on social media filters (with the vast majority purely doing face filters sponsored by brands). Some are exploring art and artistic experiences, other educational products and one designer (lucky one) is mostly getting funded by governmental agencies showing how innovative they are, for example in tourism. The hard truth of AR today is that it’s much easier to find clients for 2D-based content, websites, videos or apps. However, the trend from 2D to 3D is here to stay, with now traditional industries embracing the Web3.0. Fashion, real-estate & construction, transport or sport industries seem to be done with exploration phase and are now investing big amounts to stay on the technology train. Will their budgets be enough to convince creators to spend their time and energy with them or is something else happening that is taking a completely reverse approach? Can the Metaverse fulfil the original vision of Web’s founders, empowering everyone to become actively involved in value creation?
The Metaverse, web 3.0 or where the big bucks go
Terms can be confusing. Even more now that Facebook is Meta. Metaverse — as a concept and a name — appears to have won the battle, embracing everything from blockchain to NFTs, AR/VR/MR/XR, crypto, digital twin, etc. A commonality in those technologies is the democratization process at stake: a single person can be at the same time the targeted user, the investor, the creator, advisor and marketer. This creates phenomenal opportunities and explains why 2021 for Web3.0 feels a bit like 1999 for web1.0 (on the top of the trillions made available by governments’ financial stimuli to face the Covid pandemic). The metaverse turns the chicken and egg problem around with cash on the table right now for anyone to build new stuff. The explosion of startups in the space is by no mean a coincidence. The record fundraising rounds, insanely high NFTs purchases or numbers of crypto investors are materializing the Metaverse megatrend.
Why does this matter for AR? Money of course. Money will incentivize developers to solve technical barriers and designers to create content, both ultimately boosting user adoption. Hints that this prediction is true could be found in AR industry M&As, with the list of acquired startups getting longer every day. The remaining ones are progressively adding NFT or blockchain elements to the core business, in a similar fashion most businesses migrated to the cloud for certain parts of their business. Gaming companies are also having a good year: US$1B for Epic game (the company behind Unreal engine), US$300M for Niantic, or IPO for Unity. Money is therefore the best indicator that AR will keep its promise.
AR replicates our innate human desire to not only understand places but to attach meaning to them. It is grounded in the tenets of biology. We add a little bonus a give users superpowers
Our bet: The killer AR app will be location-based UGC
If above examples of fundraisings aren’t enough, it’s also worth mentioning the recent millions that went into 100% virtual games and worlds: The sandbox, Decentraland or Zepeto. They are all building bricks of the Metaverse, with active communities of creators and investors (not nicely named Gold diggers).
But one thing Covid-19 has proven, people are getting crazy when under extended lockdowns. 100% virtual doesn’t seem to make us fully happy. It probably has to do with our inner motivation to explore the world, but also to socialize and have fun — in real, face-to-face, using all our senses. To that extend, we’re 100% buying in Niantic’s mission (“enrich our experiences as human beings in the physical world; build products that inspire movement, exploration, and face-to-face social interaction). We’re just adding 2 key components to complete their tech stack and that is
1-visual positioning (also referred to as accurate pose or precise relocation) so that any camera can replace itself in a mapped environment with centimeters accuracy
2- a 3D reconstruction web studio that provides real-world references for creators to build their experiences
The combination of visual positioning and 3D reconstruction allows anyone with a phone and computer, on spot or at the other end of the planet, to augment a physical space with digital content.
More to come soon! But there are already good things to start with :)
If you want to start playing around with world-scale, persistent and shared AR, download the demo app on App store or Play store and create your free account (it’s really free, we only charge after certain usage).
